* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 54 47 34 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 54 47 34 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 58 52 47 39 35 34 36 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 31 32 35 30 18 16 22 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 5 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 262 274 284 288 304 336 318 295 275 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 22.4 22.3 22.7 22.2 21.5 21.9 21.0 21.4 23.4 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 90 89 90 87 83 86 82 83 94 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 80 78 77 75 73 75 72 73 81 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 48 48 46 40 41 35 30 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 22 20 15 11 9 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -45 -37 -66 -76 -93 -35 -12 8 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 39 19 -20 -22 -34 -19 -19 -18 -27 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 15 9 12 8 8 16 7 -13 -12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1060 1165 1280 1364 1451 1583 1745 1935 1852 1827 1687 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 40.1 40.2 40.2 40.1 39.9 39.6 39.0 37.8 36.1 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.9 41.9 40.0 38.8 37.6 35.9 33.9 31.8 30.4 29.8 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 15 12 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 24 CX,CY: 24/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -30. -34. -36. -40. -43. -47. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -26. -28. -31. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -23. -36. -49. -58. -63. -68. -72. -75. -76. -77. -78. -77. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 39.9 43.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 582.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 61 54 47 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 64 57 50 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 52 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 53 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT