* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 64 62 62 58 55 49 47 38 33 27 24 21 18 17 V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 64 62 62 58 55 49 47 38 33 27 24 21 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 65 63 60 55 49 43 38 32 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 22 22 22 29 26 24 19 26 23 26 24 27 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 5 0 0 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 73 71 56 51 61 67 86 103 108 94 104 115 119 109 106 109 124 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 142 146 147 147 145 141 140 133 126 124 123 123 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 71 71 69 66 60 56 51 48 48 46 45 43 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 17 16 19 18 17 15 16 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 10 20 25 40 45 25 34 30 22 13 13 3 11 25 28 200 MB DIV 73 63 60 69 63 34 6 2 14 24 -24 -1 0 3 11 -5 -12 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -6 -5 -2 0 0 -2 0 2 4 4 0 0 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 247 257 256 251 262 312 372 324 299 334 394 423 474 527 584 627 671 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.3 105.9 106.4 106.9 108.0 109.1 110.3 111.5 112.6 113.7 114.7 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 19 17 17 16 20 17 10 11 5 1 1 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. -2. -5. -4. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -16. -18. -27. -32. -38. -41. -44. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.5 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 7.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##