* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 52 58 68 76 81 82 75 72 68 62 56 51 44 41 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 52 58 68 76 81 82 75 72 68 62 56 51 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 54 64 73 78 77 72 66 62 55 48 41 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 6 5 10 14 15 15 24 23 23 24 25 24 27 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 4 1 4 7 3 1 0 5 1 4 2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 37 27 34 23 22 35 64 59 68 65 90 83 89 93 89 97 108 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 158 156 152 154 155 152 150 150 146 140 139 139 135 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 8 8 11 8 10 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 76 76 75 74 71 71 69 67 60 57 50 48 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 20 20 22 24 24 20 21 21 19 17 15 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 28 31 37 48 48 48 67 56 50 46 34 36 30 17 23 200 MB DIV 88 106 97 98 95 75 94 60 47 62 21 44 -6 2 4 -21 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 0 -8 -4 -7 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 404 365 332 297 262 172 153 156 216 279 309 257 259 311 397 449 508 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.8 100.5 101.2 101.9 103.2 104.7 106.2 107.4 108.3 109.3 110.3 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 24 37 35 32 34 29 22 25 35 26 15 11 12 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 33. 41. 46. 47. 40. 37. 33. 27. 21. 16. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 99.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 45.7% 31.6% 22.3% 15.1% 35.7% 40.4% 43.7% Logistic: 19.3% 69.2% 56.5% 40.5% 21.2% 55.7% 56.9% 18.8% Bayesian: 21.4% 70.2% 65.0% 32.9% 8.4% 71.9% 62.3% 42.3% Consensus: 18.2% 61.7% 51.0% 31.9% 14.9% 54.4% 53.2% 34.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##