* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 71 69 68 66 65 61 55 53 52 53 54 54 53 51 50 V (KT) LAND 80 74 58 48 40 34 36 32 26 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 65 57 47 39 33 35 35 35 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 8 10 17 18 22 26 31 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 0 -3 -2 -3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 158 179 228 221 206 230 224 227 231 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.4 28.2 30.2 30.9 30.9 30.7 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 146 136 144 164 168 167 167 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 60 58 54 48 43 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 19 18 15 13 8 3 4 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 56 51 34 23 4 -11 1 6 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 78 67 14 0 15 12 36 35 30 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 -3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -50 -3 -26 -70 -39 -20 40 55 23 2 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.0 29.1 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.2 113.6 113.9 113.8 113.5 113.2 113.0 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 7 3 8 25 35 41 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -25. -24. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -19. -25. -27. -28. -27. -26. -26. -27. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 25.1 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##