* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152014 09/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 62 78 92 104 104 101 101 101 99 96 95 91 88 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 62 78 92 104 104 101 101 101 78 61 67 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 63 79 94 101 106 109 109 85 65 77 76 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 17 12 9 0 5 11 10 9 8 7 4 3 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 5 2 3 4 1 3 1 2 -3 -2 -2 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 72 59 58 60 54 17 157 90 106 121 159 204 213 241 256 225 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.0 28.3 28.0 26.3 23.9 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 157 156 156 156 157 159 162 163 165 155 147 144 126 101 72 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.6 -52.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -49.3 -49.8 -49.0 -49.7 -49.3 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 10 8 11 9 12 8 9 6 8 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 86 84 83 82 80 80 77 75 76 77 77 78 78 75 76 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 19 23 29 34 32 30 32 34 34 32 32 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 31 43 41 49 65 95 132 138 117 96 77 72 56 40 28 200 MB DIV 54 66 97 96 93 107 100 92 69 61 80 80 16 22 36 20 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 -1 -1 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 4 2 LAND (KM) 338 332 325 315 301 269 210 150 108 85 212 81 -17 -12 91 111 216 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.6 21.1 22.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.8 102.8 102.9 103.0 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.8 104.7 106.1 107.6 109.1 110.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 2 2 2 2 4 6 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 54 55 54 52 50 43 42 44 29 63 27 10 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 27. 25. 26. 27. 25. 21. 19. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 27. 43. 57. 69. 69. 66. 66. 66. 64. 61. 60. 56. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 102.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 FIFTEEN 09/10/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.51 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 23.7% 20.5% 15.2% 11.6% 19.1% 29.1% 50.9% Logistic: 1.4% 10.2% 3.6% 1.4% 0.3% 6.7% 14.9% 20.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 32.0% 17.7% 5.8% 0.1% 4.8% 15.5% 77.3% Consensus: 4.5% 22.0% 13.9% 7.4% 4.0% 10.2% 19.8% 49.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 FIFTEEN 09/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##