* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 68 68 58 44 33 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 68 68 58 44 33 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 68 54 40 32 29 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 24 35 39 49 76 63 45 20 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 6 8 13 -3 0 2 -2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 216 221 228 228 223 211 210 197 238 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 25.3 24.1 19.5 14.8 13.5 12.9 12.1 11.8 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 115 106 85 75 73 71 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 126 108 100 80 72 70 68 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -49.8 -49.0 -47.7 -47.3 -47.5 -47.7 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 2.6 5.3 4.4 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 41 44 52 44 42 52 59 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 31 32 37 37 35 33 36 31 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 53 125 166 176 142 213 237 233 232 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 88 75 72 83 48 27 76 96 18 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 -1 -40 -7 50 -15 -97 -99 -16 34 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 637 621 595 555 330 605 1130 1447 1267 1117 1022 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 38.1 39.8 41.8 43.8 48.1 52.5 57.0 60.3 62.2 64.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 63.6 60.1 56.1 52.2 44.7 38.2 32.3 27.5 23.9 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 32 34 36 35 32 29 24 17 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 21 CX,CY: 15/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. -39. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -27. -30. -28. -27. -32. -37. -43. -47. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -20. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 8. 0. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. -7. -21. -32. -33. -40. -47. -53. -61. -70. -78. -84. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.4 67.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 68 68 68 58 44 33 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 66 66 66 56 42 31 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 61 51 37 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 45 31 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT