* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 144 145 142 136 118 100 85 69 55 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 144 145 142 136 118 100 85 69 55 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 142 139 134 127 107 88 70 55 42 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 9 14 16 15 8 7 2 3 2 7 17 15 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 6 0 -1 3 5 10 10 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 20 19 19 14 9 42 48 44 40 15 58 125 152 168 179 189 183 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 27.4 26.4 25.1 23.7 21.1 21.7 22.0 22.2 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 156 157 153 138 128 115 101 74 79 81 82 76 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -49.6 -49.6 -49.7 -49.1 -49.3 -49.6 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 79 79 78 77 75 74 69 67 62 57 48 43 34 28 22 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 44 46 48 49 48 46 42 38 34 29 26 22 17 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 69 78 100 105 120 129 167 149 125 94 64 45 33 33 30 18 46 200 MB DIV 114 77 68 83 104 45 14 13 -18 0 -4 9 16 7 -9 -8 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 2 3 -3 -6 -5 1 1 2 7 6 0 -5 -13 -12 LAND (KM) 814 802 805 799 807 804 850 941 1025 1179 1259 1245 1212 1108 1057 1028 993 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.7 19.1 20.3 21.4 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.2 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.9 113.8 114.6 115.4 117.1 119.0 121.1 123.5 126.1 128.4 130.1 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 9 7 6 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 26 23 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 371 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -20. -33. -48. -61. -74. -85. -94. -98.-102.-108.-115.-121. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -10. -5. -0. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -7. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -5. -10. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 2. -4. -22. -40. -55. -71. -85.-103.-115.-124.-132.-140.-146.-150. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 15.8 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 3.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##