* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 66 75 81 93 99 100 101 97 92 86 80 77 76 75 76 V (KT) LAND 50 58 66 75 81 93 99 100 101 97 92 86 80 77 76 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 74 80 90 96 96 93 88 81 73 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 13 11 14 9 7 10 6 8 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -3 0 3 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 53 48 45 39 40 29 47 360 352 359 324 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.1 26.5 26.1 26.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 149 144 139 137 135 133 136 130 126 129 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 65 64 68 70 69 69 67 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 21 22 25 27 27 30 30 30 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 44 50 46 42 36 38 39 35 25 20 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 81 98 95 76 55 69 66 53 18 20 14 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -3 -5 -7 -4 2 -2 -7 -6 5 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1534 1603 1678 1763 1854 2045 2214 2317 2016 1718 1399 1082 759 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.8 122.9 124.2 125.5 128.1 130.8 133.5 136.3 139.1 142.1 145.1 148.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 34 25 11 5 5 11 3 5 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 20. 20. 20. 17. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 25. 31. 43. 49. 50. 51. 47. 42. 36. 30. 27. 26. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 48.6% 38.2% 26.6% 17.9% 31.3% 25.5% 16.7% Logistic: 17.8% 31.8% 23.6% 16.4% 20.2% 17.1% 32.5% 17.6% Bayesian: 19.1% 45.1% 30.0% 15.4% 11.6% 9.1% 6.6% 0.7% Consensus: 20.1% 41.9% 30.6% 19.5% 16.6% 19.2% 21.5% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##