* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 72 72 71 69 69 67 66 63 58 55 55 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 72 72 71 69 69 67 66 63 58 55 55 56 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 72 71 68 65 64 62 60 54 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 10 12 7 7 4 1 6 3 9 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 7 0 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 24 29 54 56 94 67 287 291 180 190 162 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.2 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 133 131 125 127 124 124 128 125 126 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 61 63 61 62 63 66 63 58 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 28 28 27 26 26 25 25 23 21 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -5 -4 -2 -6 -9 -3 21 36 68 74 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 20 51 29 27 33 52 39 30 28 -4 -27 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 2 7 12 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2023 2075 2128 2188 2250 2240 2068 1892 1726 1541 1304 1022 720 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.7 130.5 131.4 132.3 134.0 135.6 137.3 138.9 140.7 143.0 145.7 148.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 15 17 9 5 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 128.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 18.5% 17.9% 13.7% 10.1% 11.7% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.0% 6.5% 4.9% 3.6% 4.1% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##