* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 43 42 44 44 45 44 46 48 52 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 43 42 44 44 45 44 46 48 52 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 37 36 34 32 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 6 6 6 5 8 7 7 5 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 129 133 118 121 116 111 140 210 246 204 238 240 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 129 132 136 136 131 130 130 131 129 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 64 65 68 69 74 70 70 67 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 42 41 39 31 20 6 12 14 23 34 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 14 -4 -9 -10 15 12 31 31 23 18 40 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1008 967 928 891 855 788 715 638 586 561 570 610 673 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.3 148.8 149.3 149.8 150.3 151.3 152.4 153.7 154.9 156.2 157.5 158.8 160.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 9 11 14 10 5 6 15 23 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 16. 18. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 148.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.2% 16.0% 6.9% 4.1% 1.9% 4.4% 5.9% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##