* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 06/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 45 47 48 48 44 41 37 35 32 30 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 45 47 48 48 44 41 37 35 32 30 29 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 36 35 33 30 27 24 21 19 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 10 10 6 4 4 9 11 9 9 5 5 8 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 44 63 88 80 74 106 72 1 337 334 304 299 288 242 234 241 260 SST (C) 28.4 27.7 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 135 133 131 127 123 120 115 114 113 112 111 114 114 113 114 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 82 81 78 75 72 69 68 63 62 59 57 51 48 45 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 29 39 38 32 38 38 47 39 44 39 34 24 14 13 0 3 200 MB DIV 79 68 77 83 69 28 17 16 4 -2 -22 -17 -21 -22 -35 -24 -39 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 779 773 776 780 791 823 850 870 893 926 976 1044 1132 1233 1341 1424 1519 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.8 118.3 119.0 119.9 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 14. 13. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 9. 6. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 22.3% 20.1% 15.0% 10.3% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 2.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.6% 7.4% 5.3% 3.5% 5.9% 0.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##