* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 35 40 47 51 54 57 60 64 66 68 72 76 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 35 40 37 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 7 9 10 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 10 5 0 -1 -5 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 135 130 177 196 237 263 277 281 283 300 313 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 158 157 156 152 148 145 146 144 143 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 83 82 80 81 78 79 77 77 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 9 7 8 9 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 87 88 81 76 68 77 81 90 95 99 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 104 86 78 71 59 51 40 63 54 72 47 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 8 4 2 1 0 1 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 196 182 159 127 94 50 16 -6 -17 -17 -28 -50 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.5 94.6 94.6 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 24 25 23 20 17 15 15 14 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 35. 36. 38. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 94.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 23.6% 21.9% 16.6% 0.0% 19.2% 19.3% 31.5% Logistic: 1.3% 9.9% 4.9% 2.1% 0.1% 9.2% 16.5% 21.7% Bayesian: 2.3% 12.2% 9.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 11.5% Consensus: 4.7% 15.3% 12.0% 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% 12.6% 21.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##