* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 111 102 93 85 71 59 56 52 45 38 33 33 33 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 120 111 102 93 85 71 59 56 52 45 38 33 33 33 35 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 120 112 103 95 86 71 58 48 41 36 32 30 29 28 28 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 23 23 21 24 20 19 15 14 9 6 4 3 9 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 2 5 4 4 -1 0 0 -2 -1 2 8 12 18 16 SHEAR DIR 182 184 181 184 188 209 215 223 218 227 236 222 225 108 133 105 109 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 145 138 132 130 129 129 129 129 128 129 128 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 66 65 61 52 44 38 36 33 31 30 33 32 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 22 21 20 16 16 14 11 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 57 54 50 42 40 33 45 39 40 31 35 23 42 30 34 200 MB DIV 72 79 90 103 84 91 59 58 27 5 3 -1 12 10 18 2 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 1 7 1 0 0 1 0 1 3 4 5 5 7 LAND (KM) 1009 985 963 939 918 851 787 741 693 644 607 572 561 577 594 611 639 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.1 112.0 111.8 111.6 111.4 111.3 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 32 27 23 13 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -22. -32. -41. -47. -53. -56. -58. -59. -61. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -19. -24. -22. -17. -11. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -8. -13. -17. -22. -24. -23. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -27. -35. -49. -61. -64. -68. -75. -82. -87. -87. -87. -85. -84. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.8 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##