* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 52 52 54 53 52 53 51 48 48 48 48 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 52 52 54 53 52 53 51 48 48 48 48 48 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 51 52 55 53 50 50 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 13 9 20 23 32 20 9 3 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 7 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 237 190 195 195 182 173 161 228 192 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.9 24.0 22.3 22.8 20.2 17.4 15.3 13.3 9.1 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 97 99 91 94 84 77 73 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 88 83 86 78 73 69 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.5 -58.1 -58.3 -58.4 -58.4 -58.3 -57.8 -56.8 -56.6 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 51 50 43 33 30 43 54 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 29 28 26 27 26 25 24 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 156 135 125 126 120 127 151 153 105 70 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 50 54 66 71 64 41 16 34 62 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 -7 -6 -6 -19 -25 -13 -12 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1709 1628 1550 1431 1307 1101 1118 1305 1410 1437 1482 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.7 32.6 33.9 35.1 38.2 41.4 44.5 48.0 51.7 55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 54.1 53.5 52.0 50.5 46.2 41.2 36.5 33.9 33.4 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 14 18 21 24 24 21 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. 24. 21. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -10. -13. -16. -22. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 30.7 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 52 52 54 53 52 53 51 48 48 48 48 48 47 46 18HR AGO 50 49 49 50 50 52 51 50 51 49 46 46 46 46 46 45 44 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 49 48 47 48 46 43 43 43 43 43 42 41 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 41 40 41 39 36 36 36 36 36 35 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT