* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 31 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 31 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 34 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 19 26 51 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 8 7 1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 205 219 233 237 233 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.1 25.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 146 150 146 123 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 52 48 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 10 18 33 26 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -1 22 36 47 67 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 -3 1 6 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 489 384 281 182 122 -97 -371 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.6 22.7 25.1 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.8 109.6 109.0 108.4 107.0 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 9 11 8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -4. -12. -23. -33. -40. -43. -45. -46. -50. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -15. -21. -27. -31. -33. -35. -37. -40. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 17.3% 13.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.9% 4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##