* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 53 58 60 62 62 63 63 63 56 51 47 43 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 53 58 60 62 62 63 63 63 56 51 47 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 45 48 49 50 51 51 50 46 39 33 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 6 6 6 7 8 12 13 14 12 15 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 1 -1 3 2 0 -1 -1 1 -1 8 2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 233 198 214 177 181 179 190 172 178 202 226 215 199 193 187 166 176 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.6 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 153 152 152 140 144 143 140 136 130 125 126 126 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 51 52 52 55 56 62 66 67 65 61 55 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 16 15 16 17 18 20 20 16 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 -2 -4 2 16 24 39 33 32 23 19 13 2 6 9 2 200 MB DIV 32 48 40 24 35 35 24 15 11 35 59 85 71 49 15 21 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 3 9 4 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 505 574 635 717 807 1025 1156 1264 1343 1376 1364 1324 1273 1238 1252 1328 1398 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.4 108.3 109.4 110.4 112.7 114.9 116.9 118.5 119.6 120.3 120.5 120.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 22 24 20 13 14 6 13 14 12 9 4 2 2 3 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 3. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. 23. 16. 11. 7. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 106.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 34.6% 24.8% 18.2% 13.2% 20.1% 18.1% 14.1% Logistic: 12.3% 35.4% 28.1% 17.1% 5.1% 17.1% 9.1% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 27.0% 18.2% 11.9% 6.2% 12.6% 9.2% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##