* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/20/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 60 65 64 58 54 51 50 52 55 59 62 64 67 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 56 60 65 64 58 54 51 50 52 55 59 62 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 59 63 67 67 63 60 60 60 60 62 62 62 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 7 8 12 12 13 14 12 13 7 11 10 12 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 134 163 165 205 209 168 195 188 226 241 249 222 219 209 213 220 222 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 163 163 163 164 164 164 166 168 166 164 160 154 152 150 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 11 9 10 8 9 7 10 8 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 69 67 61 58 56 55 57 57 53 53 52 52 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 13 10 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 25 22 29 34 41 33 28 24 18 19 6 3 23 23 17 15 200 MB DIV 65 58 45 39 64 69 48 71 44 8 13 0 -11 -3 -23 -18 -4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 2 5 6 5 LAND (KM) 290 270 251 236 222 202 184 175 166 166 170 219 300 403 530 725 920 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.5 102.5 102.5 102.5 102.5 103.1 104.2 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 4 5 6 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 25 26 26 25 28 32 27 27 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 15. 20. 19. 13. 9. 6. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 101.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 47.4% 35.1% 25.8% 16.0% 40.7% 45.7% 46.9% Logistic: 12.7% 37.6% 27.3% 17.7% 16.7% 16.4% 19.4% 4.9% Bayesian: 6.0% 43.3% 21.3% 6.9% 9.1% 21.3% 25.2% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 42.7% 27.9% 16.8% 13.9% 26.1% 30.1% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##