* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 44 47 50 53 53 56 56 55 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 44 47 50 53 53 56 56 55 56 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 42 43 44 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 3 9 14 15 20 15 18 15 16 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 227 273 294 321 333 331 312 307 275 271 220 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 134 133 131 129 129 132 132 131 132 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 116 114 111 108 108 111 111 110 112 113 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 54 52 52 50 46 44 46 52 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -123 -114 -100 -90 -83 -49 -39 -24 -23 -34 -36 -27 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 3 6 -4 -37 -12 -29 -10 -14 16 2 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -3 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 2 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1810 1883 1956 2018 2079 2144 2141 2090 2039 2007 2046 2041 1926 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.7 28.8 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.3 48.8 48.2 47.7 46.9 46.8 47.3 47.9 48.5 48.5 47.9 47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 3 3 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 17 21 31 32 30 21 14 14 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 23. 26. 26. 25. 26. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.4 49.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.88 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.7% 9.0% 5.8% 4.8% 7.7% 10.1% 11.5% Logistic: 4.7% 14.9% 9.6% 1.7% 0.4% 6.3% 10.4% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.7% 6.3% 2.5% 1.8% 4.7% 6.8% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 40 44 47 50 53 53 56 56 55 56 57 59 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 38 42 45 48 51 51 54 54 53 54 55 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 38 41 44 47 47 50 50 49 50 51 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 30 33 36 39 39 42 42 41 42 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT