* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 45 51 54 55 54 52 49 45 40 37 35 34 35 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 45 51 54 55 54 52 49 45 40 37 35 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 42 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 15 30 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -1 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 263 247 227 201 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 26.2 23.9 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 119 101 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 114 106 90 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 54 55 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -33 7 45 73 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 28 56 68 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 5 11 18 3 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 737 729 635 480 367 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.2 36.3 38.3 40.2 44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.9 67.7 67.5 66.6 65.6 63.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 16 21 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 27 17 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 811 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 20. 19. 17. 14. 10. 5. 2. -0. -1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.0 67.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.5% 7.3% 5.0% 3.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.3% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 45 51 54 55 54 52 49 45 40 37 35 34 35 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 42 48 51 52 51 49 46 42 37 34 32 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 37 43 46 47 46 44 41 37 32 29 27 26 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 38 39 38 36 33 29 24 21 19 18 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT