* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 81 82 81 75 64 52 39 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 81 82 81 75 64 52 39 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 81 78 75 67 59 53 46 41 36 34 35 37 41 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 12 16 13 20 22 30 34 36 30 30 17 16 13 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 6 0 10 2 0 0 1 -1 4 1 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 210 186 209 198 212 228 233 239 245 258 261 257 237 238 259 288 255 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 109 104 104 104 109 112 115 117 117 129 133 132 133 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 100 95 95 94 98 102 104 106 106 115 116 113 113 113 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 64 63 57 50 45 44 45 47 49 47 47 46 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 30 29 28 24 21 18 15 14 13 15 17 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 118 118 111 114 108 76 58 46 33 26 16 20 26 19 26 16 30 200 MB DIV 87 113 125 114 114 49 1 7 4 7 2 1 50 4 21 -4 17 700-850 TADV 6 7 8 11 17 13 11 4 4 0 0 -1 -1 1 4 6 1 LAND (KM) 1274 1314 1307 1314 1328 1398 1566 1794 2040 2295 2526 2379 2220 2129 2095 2033 1930 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.0 22.5 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.9 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.5 32.1 34.3 36.7 39.2 41.7 44.1 46.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 10 7 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 15 21 25 22 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -11. -18. -23. -26. -28. -26. -22. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 7. 6. -0. -11. -23. -36. -48. -55. -60. -55. -49. -42. -39. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.5 29.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.5% 33.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 25.0% 12.7% 5.8% 2.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 21.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.7% 20.0% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 8( 20) 5( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 81 82 81 75 64 52 39 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 75 76 75 69 58 46 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 71 65 54 42 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 58 47 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT