* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 70 72 74 72 63 52 42 35 30 31 37 41 43 47 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 70 72 74 72 63 52 42 35 30 31 37 41 43 47 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 68 71 70 65 56 48 41 36 34 34 36 39 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 7 11 13 17 21 26 28 30 26 22 16 19 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 1 1 5 7 12 4 3 1 0 3 3 5 0 7 SHEAR DIR 349 349 113 165 186 211 221 230 238 247 261 260 266 233 237 242 247 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 120 118 112 104 105 107 112 115 117 119 124 132 132 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 112 110 103 94 94 96 102 105 107 108 111 116 113 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 73 74 72 69 63 51 48 43 41 45 45 48 47 49 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 29 29 30 29 25 21 17 14 13 14 19 21 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 118 117 109 110 78 57 41 26 22 10 25 33 25 19 10 200 MB DIV 56 58 98 124 118 106 30 -27 -19 -13 3 7 34 37 -16 21 19 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 7 8 16 12 11 1 3 0 1 0 0 -1 5 8 LAND (KM) 1204 1233 1267 1305 1314 1330 1420 1553 1750 2006 2271 2430 2371 2236 2188 2114 1999 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.7 21.9 22.8 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.2 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.7 32.0 33.9 36.4 39.0 41.7 43.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 10 12 12 12 10 9 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 7 21 27 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -26. -25. -18. -14. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 12. 3. -8. -18. -25. -30. -29. -23. -19. -17. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.6 28.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 22.6% 15.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 17.3% 7.8% 3.4% 1.8% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 8.0% 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 14.3% 8.0% 4.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 70 72 74 72 63 52 42 35 30 31 37 41 43 47 18HR AGO 60 59 63 66 68 70 68 59 48 38 31 26 27 33 37 39 43 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 61 63 61 52 41 31 24 19 20 26 30 32 36 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 54 52 43 32 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT