* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 76 80 78 72 59 47 37 29 25 26 26 32 38 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 76 80 78 72 59 47 37 29 25 26 26 32 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 75 76 72 62 52 44 37 33 30 29 30 32 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 2 6 9 16 19 20 29 29 31 30 31 18 20 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 5 10 5 0 4 4 2 5 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 358 358 79 148 178 199 234 235 241 245 239 250 249 243 230 232 228 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.5 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 126 122 117 107 107 105 109 111 116 118 119 127 130 132 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 118 114 108 98 96 94 98 101 105 107 107 113 114 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 70 73 74 70 62 53 46 41 37 38 43 47 46 49 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 29 31 30 28 23 18 15 12 11 12 11 14 18 850 MB ENV VOR 129 113 120 127 127 125 107 77 60 46 33 20 17 11 19 21 20 200 MB DIV 60 47 61 100 128 111 54 -6 -29 -26 -4 -2 8 30 20 21 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 6 9 10 8 0 0 -6 -2 -4 2 0 3 10 LAND (KM) 1160 1195 1236 1274 1319 1323 1379 1472 1630 1855 2110 2384 2438 2325 2216 2175 2026 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.4 20.3 21.9 23.1 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.3 31.2 32.7 34.9 37.4 40.1 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 9 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 15 19 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -9. -16. -23. -27. -29. -27. -28. -23. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 18. 12. -1. -13. -23. -31. -35. -34. -34. -28. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.1 28.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 30.1% 23.2% 14.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 17.3% 8.0% 3.2% 1.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 6.4% 6.4% 2.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 17.9% 11.1% 6.7% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 73 76 80 78 72 59 47 37 29 25 26 26 32 38 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 71 75 73 67 54 42 32 24 20 21 21 27 33 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 67 65 59 46 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 57 55 49 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT