* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 46 51 51 53 50 50 47 43 39 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 30 27 32 35 40 45 49 50 52 49 48 45 41 37 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 26 29 30 33 35 36 37 37 37 38 37 35 33 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 11 15 13 15 21 22 22 23 37 44 39 31 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 -1 0 0 0 3 -3 2 0 1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 308 274 283 287 252 270 253 268 242 236 214 220 225 239 249 264 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 150 155 148 152 160 164 159 143 135 132 125 127 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 139 136 136 139 131 135 143 148 143 125 115 110 104 105 100 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 58 58 59 61 61 64 63 55 50 45 39 39 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 55 44 35 33 15 20 5 11 -1 10 -9 -39 -79 -115 -118 200 MB DIV 41 64 51 47 37 38 40 36 43 64 43 47 1 -8 -14 -9 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 3 6 -3 0 2 1 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 85 50 -12 27 56 123 243 368 526 732 991 1274 1287 1209 1066 890 718 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.8 27.7 29.8 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.2 68.6 69.0 69.3 69.8 69.9 69.6 68.7 67.2 65.6 63.9 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 7 9 11 12 12 9 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 36 40 49 61 49 46 48 48 39 25 13 17 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. -18. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 21. 23. 20. 20. 17. 13. 9. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 67.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.0% 9.0% 6.3% 5.7% 8.6% 9.9% 11.9% Logistic: 1.0% 6.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 3.6% 3.1% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 7.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.2% 4.1% 4.4% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 27 32 35 40 45 49 50 52 49 48 45 41 37 34 34 18HR AGO 30 29 26 31 34 39 44 48 49 51 48 47 44 40 36 33 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 39 44 48 49 51 48 47 44 40 36 33 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 37 38 40 37 36 33 29 25 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT