* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PEWA CP012013 08/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 70 72 71 68 63 64 62 60 59 58 59 58 57 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 70 72 71 68 63 64 62 60 59 58 59 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 70 74 75 74 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 8 10 20 25 21 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 0 2 -2 2 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 155 214 223 241 223 243 230 233 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 150 149 156 155 155 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 61 62 61 58 56 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 76 71 63 55 48 48 49 44 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 76 75 52 33 28 24 48 27 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2216 2283 2354 2426 2501 2659 2845 2705 2470 2255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.7 16.0 17.3 18.7 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.0 179.0 180.1 181.2 182.2 184.3 186.6 188.9 191.2 193.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 60 56 59 63 70 51 40 54 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.4 178.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 11.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 13.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 12.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.56 4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.5% 65.1% 62.0% 59.7% 53.0% 46.8% 17.5% 13.6% Logistic: 24.2% 30.3% 32.9% 23.6% 10.3% 12.0% 2.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 15.4% 71.7% 62.3% 43.1% 27.0% 52.8% 27.3% 3.6% Consensus: 26.7% 55.7% 52.4% 42.2% 30.1% 37.2% 15.7% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##