* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 47 49 50 50 49 48 50 53 57 61 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 47 49 50 50 49 48 50 53 57 61 66 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 49 51 49 47 45 45 48 54 63 73 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 5 9 9 9 15 12 9 3 0 6 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 3 6 1 5 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 27 43 75 92 169 168 180 190 199 190 179 86 154 55 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 120 117 114 111 111 114 118 123 127 129 130 131 133 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 116 112 109 105 104 107 111 116 119 122 123 124 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 70 69 67 60 54 47 44 37 36 31 29 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 18 17 15 12 10 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 47 43 36 27 41 49 49 42 32 33 10 6 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 38 47 27 36 -1 -9 -11 -15 -18 -10 -11 2 -6 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -12 -9 -6 -3 -5 0 0 -1 2 1 3 4 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1021 1160 1300 1435 1570 1823 2061 2055 1914 1765 1629 1534 1435 1237 1080 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 17.0 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.3 29.6 30.9 32.1 34.4 36.6 38.7 40.9 43.1 45.4 47.6 50.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 10 14 15 18 16 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 15. 18. 22. 26. 31. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 27.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/15/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.81 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.0% 10.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 20.2% 11.2% 3.9% 2.0% 6.4% 6.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 1.9% 7.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 2.1% 3.3% 0.3% Consensus: 4.0% 14.5% 7.8% 3.8% 0.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/15/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 47 49 50 50 49 48 50 53 57 61 66 70 72 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 43 45 46 46 45 44 46 49 53 57 62 66 68 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 38 39 39 38 37 39 42 46 50 55 59 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 30 30 29 28 30 33 37 41 46 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT