* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 36 40 43 45 45 45 47 48 51 55 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 36 40 43 45 45 45 47 48 51 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 2 4 4 4 6 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A -1 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 183 309 23 N/A N/A 118 212 223 224 201 243 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.9 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 125 126 124 124 121 123 129 131 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 54 N/A N/A 57 56 55 54 49 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 8 8 N/A N/A -24 -26 -9 -1 6 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 26 45 60 N/A N/A 34 26 27 20 7 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1504 1425 1346 1263 1181 1015 864 727 612 538 470 482 551 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.0 143.7 144.5 145.3 146.8 148.3 149.8 151.3 152.7 154.3 156.1 157.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 3 3 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 22. 23. 26. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 142.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/07/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.5 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.4% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##