* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 34 40 46 49 52 52 53 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 34 40 46 49 52 52 53 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 21 21 22 23 26 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 10 5 8 6 11 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 124 119 130 150 141 109 82 73 59 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.3 27.1 26.4 26.5 27.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 130 130 136 134 127 128 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 59 58 56 60 58 58 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 4 19 14 10 15 5 1 -9 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 40 48 34 22 31 42 51 66 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1890 1825 1760 1693 1627 1480 1336 1193 1056 944 840 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.0 139.7 140.5 141.3 143.0 144.7 146.4 148.2 149.9 151.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 12 13 16 8 3 6 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 4. 9. 15. 21. 24. 27. 27. 28. 27. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 138.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 16.0% 6.5% 4.0% 1.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 10.3% 6.8% 1.3% 0.5% 5.2% 4.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##