* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 55 62 70 72 73 73 72 69 66 64 63 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 55 62 70 72 73 73 72 69 66 64 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 51 57 60 60 57 52 49 46 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 14 14 11 7 7 1 4 4 7 4 9 8 8 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -8 -9 -7 -5 -3 -4 0 -3 -2 -4 0 5 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 58 72 87 83 63 57 10 273 290 234 295 282 296 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 25.6 24.8 25.3 25.0 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 141 139 134 135 133 131 132 119 111 116 113 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 75 76 75 76 74 71 68 70 65 63 57 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 31 34 37 36 37 34 21 18 24 18 23 12 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 71 49 74 82 74 100 72 88 57 60 24 9 8 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 1 0 3 4 11 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1903 1967 2034 2090 2146 2254 2323 2388 2197 1988 1772 1537 1295 1057 810 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.3 17.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.0 126.8 127.5 128.2 129.8 131.4 133.0 134.6 136.4 138.3 140.4 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 15 12 10 7 10 8 5 13 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 32. 40. 42. 43. 43. 42. 39. 36. 34. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 24.2% 20.5% 15.0% 0.0% 17.4% 18.1% 27.4% Logistic: 7.0% 37.2% 18.5% 12.7% 13.8% 24.4% 59.7% 33.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 0.1% Consensus: 6.2% 22.8% 13.9% 9.6% 4.8% 15.0% 27.0% 20.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##