* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 51 50 47 44 40 37 34 32 31 30 31 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 51 50 47 44 40 37 34 32 31 31 32 33 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 51 49 45 41 39 37 36 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 9 9 11 9 11 13 14 20 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 9 3 1 0 -4 -1 -2 1 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 239 215 219 238 214 241 231 257 268 270 280 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.3 24.5 24.7 24.0 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 118 110 112 105 110 114 116 123 131 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 61 58 52 48 42 42 44 48 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 20 20 17 14 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 30 27 24 22 13 -10 -27 -42 -62 -81 -77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 74 90 38 11 5 -4 -22 -8 -10 -3 -9 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 3 0 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2277 2118 1938 1757 1577 1232 902 585 302 30 105 170 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.3 135.0 136.6 138.3 139.9 143.1 146.2 149.2 151.9 154.5 157.1 159.8 162.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 133.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.2% 2.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 9.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##