* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 42 44 45 50 51 51 52 53 46 45 45 47 52 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 42 44 45 50 51 51 52 53 46 45 45 47 52 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 40 39 39 41 41 41 40 38 36 35 36 39 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 14 14 15 10 14 13 22 26 27 18 25 18 19 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 5 0 3 3 2 4 5 5 5 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 221 230 228 229 247 231 229 230 221 224 237 249 245 243 250 273 265 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.5 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.0 29.0 29.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 119 121 122 126 133 141 142 137 131 135 132 134 137 152 154 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 119 120 125 131 139 138 131 124 125 122 124 126 140 141 158 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 49 47 44 43 43 43 44 44 45 49 49 51 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 16 16 15 14 14 9 8 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 22 17 9 -2 -16 -21 -30 -32 -21 -11 -14 -13 -20 -29 -36 200 MB DIV 20 33 44 -3 -18 2 -4 28 23 3 26 7 -13 7 2 -7 13 700-850 TADV 20 30 23 12 9 5 -4 -5 -2 -4 -11 -12 -11 -4 -9 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 1854 1753 1657 1582 1521 1290 1026 662 362 222 172 135 167 105 66 46 89 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.0 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 42.4 44.4 46.3 48.3 52.3 56.0 59.6 62.9 65.9 68.5 70.8 73.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 18 17 15 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 5 15 10 26 19 24 15 28 36 27 19 33 35 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -18. -20. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 1. 0. -0. 2. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.9 40.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.2% 6.4% 4.9% 4.1% 7.1% 7.8% 8.8% Logistic: 0.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 42 42 44 45 50 51 51 52 53 46 45 45 47 52 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 43 45 46 51 52 52 53 54 47 46 46 48 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 43 44 49 50 50 51 52 45 44 44 46 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 38 43 44 44 45 46 39 38 38 40 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT