* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 75 75 74 68 61 53 46 41 36 33 31 29 27 25 V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 75 75 74 68 61 53 46 41 36 33 31 29 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 74 74 74 71 64 55 45 36 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 12 11 8 11 8 5 1 3 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 1 1 1 -2 -1 4 4 0 1 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 100 105 99 81 88 105 116 130 60 84 148 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.1 24.7 23.6 22.5 22.9 22.6 22.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 150 145 135 110 98 87 91 88 83 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 72 71 70 66 63 62 58 58 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 53 65 64 46 38 9 15 -2 -9 -27 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 87 79 29 27 24 -17 3 -7 0 0 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -3 -1 -7 -7 -8 -2 -2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 118 93 98 119 264 122 171 234 366 501 632 792 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.2 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.2 105.9 106.5 108.2 110.0 111.8 113.8 115.7 117.7 119.7 121.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 12 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. -25. -27. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. -2. -9. -17. -24. -29. -34. -37. -39. -41. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 104.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 26.7% 23.5% 18.1% 13.4% 16.1% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 16.3% 8.5% 4.7% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 9.8% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 17.6% 11.8% 8.1% 5.3% 6.4% 4.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##