* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 66 65 65 61 56 50 45 40 37 34 33 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 66 65 65 61 56 50 45 40 37 34 33 32 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 65 64 61 58 52 44 37 30 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 6 13 12 5 8 5 3 6 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 2 0 1 0 1 3 0 -2 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 80 87 116 109 65 79 103 76 87 95 156 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.2 25.5 24.0 23.1 23.6 22.7 23.5 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 148 144 136 118 102 93 99 89 98 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 76 74 72 68 64 66 62 62 58 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 45 50 56 38 18 13 0 -11 -18 -18 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 58 58 67 77 16 27 -6 1 5 -10 0 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -2 -13 -7 -8 0 0 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 154 146 142 130 194 241 151 259 345 541 721 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.7 20.9 21.9 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.9 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.1 105.8 107.4 109.1 111.0 112.9 114.9 117.2 119.7 122.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 18 14 12 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 6. 5. 5. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -27. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 103.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 42.4% 29.0% 20.8% 15.1% 19.4% 15.1% 10.4% Logistic: 16.1% 26.2% 14.5% 7.9% 2.7% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.4% 18.4% 9.3% 5.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 29.0% 17.6% 11.5% 6.5% 9.4% 5.4% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##