* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 47 50 57 62 63 63 58 55 50 45 45 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 47 50 57 62 63 63 58 55 50 45 45 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 51 54 56 56 52 47 41 36 31 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 6 7 10 12 12 9 12 10 11 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 4 3 5 1 1 0 2 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 56 55 91 76 74 55 59 66 56 76 68 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 27.9 27.0 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.5 23.8 23.9 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 155 155 151 143 133 120 116 112 108 100 101 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 7 9 7 7 5 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 82 81 82 81 75 69 68 65 63 62 61 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 9 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 14 24 44 48 52 28 21 19 15 0 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 54 44 56 87 58 45 -1 8 -9 24 -7 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -6 -5 -6 -6 -5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 189 166 157 156 134 155 232 336 291 318 435 543 705 831 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.4 101.1 101.9 102.6 104.2 105.8 107.3 108.8 110.3 112.2 114.4 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 24 23 16 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 20. 21. 21. 19. 18. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 22. 27. 28. 28. 23. 20. 15. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 99.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 26.8% 22.8% 16.9% 12.2% 18.8% 17.5% 15.7% Logistic: 17.3% 52.9% 36.3% 21.6% 9.2% 35.9% 19.4% 6.5% Bayesian: 3.4% 51.3% 28.3% 14.0% 1.6% 17.7% 11.5% 0.5% Consensus: 10.8% 43.7% 29.1% 17.5% 7.7% 24.1% 16.1% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##