* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 60 67 76 88 91 82 66 53 39 29 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 60 67 76 88 91 82 66 53 39 29 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 66 72 82 82 71 55 41 32 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 7 7 13 13 14 12 9 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 4 8 0 8 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 39 48 74 86 88 86 72 88 100 71 36 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.5 28.9 27.9 25.8 24.9 22.4 21.8 21.6 22.8 21.2 21.4 21.5 22.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 165 161 154 144 122 113 87 81 79 91 73 75 76 85 97 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -50.4 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 88 86 85 82 77 72 68 63 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 21 21 24 26 27 25 21 19 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 59 72 77 100 136 152 127 112 84 81 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 124 153 162 165 145 28 21 5 5 -26 -16 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 -6 -6 -5 -7 2 -2 1 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 539 531 527 541 582 653 703 818 955 1139 1306 1516 1712 1895 2044 1996 1819 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.5 20.6 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.5 107.4 108.5 109.5 111.9 114.4 116.9 119.6 122.4 125.1 127.7 130.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 41 25 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 11. 7. 5. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 31. 43. 46. 37. 21. 8. -6. -16. -23. -28. -31. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.9 105.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 145.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.93 12.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -37.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.95 -10.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.8% 56.6% 53.4% 49.1% 0.0% 56.4% 39.3% 14.2% Logistic: 9.6% 44.7% 27.7% 16.6% 6.2% 17.9% 6.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 25.9% 22.5% 28.3% 9.2% 0.9% 16.1% 7.6% 0.0% Consensus: 18.8% 41.3% 36.5% 25.0% 2.4% 30.2% 17.8% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##