* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 38 42 47 50 48 45 40 37 33 31 30 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 38 42 47 50 48 45 40 37 33 31 30 30 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 29 28 28 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 15 12 11 8 7 23 24 15 15 13 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 5 8 2 9 7 6 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 274 275 256 267 228 228 257 223 234 244 293 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 149 147 145 142 140 133 131 129 128 131 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 72 68 65 66 67 70 59 57 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 9 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -10 -13 -10 -9 -21 -23 -26 -25 -18 -8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 129 130 136 139 161 108 90 51 26 22 -1 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 -5 -6 -2 3 1 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1209 1223 1239 1253 1274 1330 1343 1372 1436 1518 1605 1687 1769 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.2 114.5 115.9 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.1 122.4 123.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 33 28 20 17 11 8 6 14 6 2 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 3. 7. 12. 15. 13. 10. 5. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.6 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 23.9% 20.4% 14.4% 10.8% 19.2% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 12.7% 5.7% 2.5% 0.3% 7.3% 4.3% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 12.7% 8.9% 5.7% 3.7% 8.9% 7.5% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##