* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 84 87 89 78 66 55 46 37 35 35 34 32 31 29 V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 84 87 89 78 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 84 86 85 79 46 33 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 5 9 9 14 20 26 35 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -4 -4 -7 -3 0 -2 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 230 148 140 140 145 176 214 220 226 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.2 28.6 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 159 160 158 146 151 146 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 7 10 7 8 5 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 60 56 50 48 48 42 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 16 16 15 13 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 32 29 25 29 33 23 27 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 91 103 119 86 92 80 44 -11 -16 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 3 1 6 10 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 284 252 227 204 142 15 -124 -179 -253 -416 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.7 17.9 19.7 21.8 24.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.7 101.9 102.0 102.1 102.4 102.9 103.2 103.6 103.9 104.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 8 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 19 20 20 19 11 18 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -10. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 22. 24. 13. 1. -10. -19. -28. -30. -30. -31. -33. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 101.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 15.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 17.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 15.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 14.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -11.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 16.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 11.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 82% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 7.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 14.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 14.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 67% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 81.6% 88.6% 87.6% 84.5% 62.1% 67.1% 43.7% 0.0% Logistic: 51.3% 61.2% 61.1% 55.8% 39.7% 41.6% 21.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 55.8% 49.8% 55.6% 45.5% 8.5% 14.2% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 62.9% 66.5% 68.1% 61.9% 36.8% 40.9% 22.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##