* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 09/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 52 58 65 68 66 62 55 48 42 39 39 39 37 35 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 52 58 65 68 66 62 55 48 42 39 39 39 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 56 59 59 56 50 43 35 30 27 26 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 2 1 7 7 18 25 27 36 31 30 31 32 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 10 8 11 11 18 11 11 6 8 6 0 -6 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 312 276 301 346 138 120 142 178 199 223 236 241 233 226 224 239 233 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 148 144 141 138 137 135 133 135 135 134 132 129 121 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 145 148 144 141 138 136 133 130 130 127 123 117 113 110 98 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -53.4 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.9 -56.5 -57.1 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 64 62 62 59 54 51 49 46 43 40 39 48 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 22 24 24 23 20 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 48 57 59 67 63 55 64 78 82 53 23 -8 -40 -55 -39 -48 -43 200 MB DIV 189 185 144 140 148 85 67 27 53 32 15 67 34 14 12 42 16 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -13 -11 -6 0 8 8 16 21 26 26 11 3 -5 3 0 LAND (KM) 1016 1069 1125 1232 1344 1533 1698 1844 1990 2019 2146 2324 2491 2334 2139 1966 1922 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.5 10.4 11.4 12.8 14.6 16.7 19.5 22.4 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.6 28.8 30.9 32.8 34.6 36.2 38.0 39.5 40.6 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 12 12 11 11 12 13 14 16 15 14 11 12 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 19 20 17 11 10 13 16 11 16 15 24 12 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. -20. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 30. 33. 31. 27. 20. 13. 7. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.1 25.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 09/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 25.9 to 2.2 1.00 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.82 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 161.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.95 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 47.2% 31.4% 9.5% 6.4% 24.8% 30.5% 30.2% Logistic: 7.1% 35.8% 16.7% 5.7% 1.7% 3.6% 4.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 3.4% 15.0% 7.4% 0.6% 0.7% 5.3% 3.5% 0.7% Consensus: 5.9% 32.7% 18.5% 5.2% 2.9% 11.2% 12.8% 10.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 09/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 52 58 65 68 66 62 55 48 42 39 39 39 37 35 18HR AGO 35 34 39 46 52 59 62 60 56 49 42 36 33 33 33 31 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 38 44 51 54 52 48 41 34 28 25 25 25 23 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 38 41 39 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT