* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 106 107 108 106 105 102 105 107 107 107 104 100 97 90 75 V (KT) LAND 100 104 106 107 108 106 105 102 105 107 107 107 104 100 97 90 75 V (KT) LGEM 100 104 106 105 103 100 99 98 103 105 106 108 106 101 94 85 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 5 5 8 8 13 12 2 6 7 11 15 18 31 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -3 1 14 13 SHEAR DIR 184 188 270 274 262 274 294 310 289 351 235 222 234 209 220 218 228 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.5 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.6 27.8 26.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 127 129 127 132 134 144 155 157 159 156 147 147 136 121 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 122 123 120 123 124 133 141 142 143 139 129 128 118 105 75 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.0 -50.4 -49.8 -50.0 -49.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.3 1.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 58 55 52 53 52 52 54 56 60 62 62 67 58 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 33 34 36 35 37 36 40 42 42 43 42 41 42 42 37 850 MB ENV VOR 70 66 62 55 46 31 18 2 0 8 18 32 18 34 70 100 134 200 MB DIV 75 63 37 37 25 31 0 2 2 65 35 73 64 100 57 72 21 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 1 1 -2 -1 0 1 -3 6 16 24 37 -48 LAND (KM) 1540 1513 1500 1513 1528 1482 1401 1252 1147 1105 1139 1255 1362 1079 768 472 187 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.9 26.6 28.7 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.2 46.4 47.5 48.6 50.7 52.6 54.4 56.1 57.7 59.2 60.7 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 12 13 14 15 17 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 22 34 26 27 41 30 44 35 39 26 24 30 23 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -22. -26. -28. -29. -31. -34. -37. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 6. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. -0. -3. -10. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.0 44.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 594.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.5% 27.7% 16.7% 10.5% 7.2% 14.3% 9.1% 3.6% Bayesian: 25.1% 32.9% 15.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.4% 20.2% 10.9% 4.1% 2.7% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/04/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 28( 59) 27( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 6( 6) 4( 10) 4( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 106 107 108 106 105 102 105 107 107 107 104 100 97 90 75 18HR AGO 100 99 101 102 103 101 100 97 100 102 102 102 99 95 92 85 70 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 98 96 95 92 95 97 97 97 94 90 87 80 65 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 89 88 85 88 90 90 90 87 83 80 73 58 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 75 78 80 80 80 77 73 70 63 48 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 85 84 81 84 86 86 86 83 79 76 69 54 IN 12HR 100 104 106 97 91 87 86 83 86 88 88 88 85 81 78 71 56