* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 94 96 104 109 108 108 106 107 109 111 109 103 99 93 V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 94 96 104 109 108 108 106 107 109 111 109 103 99 93 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 88 90 92 98 102 104 104 101 105 110 112 111 107 97 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 6 5 5 1 7 9 7 10 6 4 9 16 16 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 0 1 0 -2 1 -1 -4 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 195 176 93 99 77 70 88 305 290 327 301 266 242 260 257 217 219 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.7 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 28.9 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 121 122 121 127 129 136 138 147 159 164 166 164 151 141 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 119 118 119 117 122 122 128 127 134 144 148 149 145 132 123 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.5 -49.2 -49.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 65 63 58 53 50 50 49 52 53 56 59 61 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 33 35 34 37 39 38 39 39 41 43 45 45 43 43 41 850 MB ENV VOR 64 78 82 81 77 72 60 41 32 13 8 -3 5 20 6 32 129 200 MB DIV 17 43 70 88 81 55 27 31 -3 5 15 57 45 78 38 68 18 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -8 -5 -5 -2 -5 0 -2 2 4 2 7 6 18 20 19 LAND (KM) 1833 1741 1659 1608 1560 1520 1547 1505 1418 1292 1222 1188 1210 1293 1430 1140 804 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.2 22.4 23.8 25.3 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.6 41.0 42.3 43.7 46.2 48.4 50.6 52.5 54.1 55.5 57.0 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 18 7 3 12 10 20 27 30 38 31 52 43 48 32 25 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. 11. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 16. 24. 29. 28. 28. 26. 27. 29. 31. 29. 23. 19. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.4 38.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.89 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 26.4% 22.8% 19.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 27.7% 16.2% 6.8% 4.6% 12.7% 8.3% 3.6% Bayesian: 17.7% 40.2% 16.2% 3.6% 1.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% Consensus: 15.1% 31.4% 18.4% 9.8% 4.4% 5.6% 3.1% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/03/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 19( 33) 26( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 85 89 94 96 104 109 108 108 106 107 109 111 109 103 99 93 18HR AGO 80 79 83 88 90 98 103 102 102 100 101 103 105 103 97 93 87 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 83 91 96 95 95 93 94 96 98 96 90 86 80 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 80 85 84 84 82 83 85 87 85 79 75 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 85 76 70 67 69 74 73 73 71 72 74 76 74 68 64 58 IN 12HR 80 85 89 80 74 70 75 74 74 72 73 75 77 75 69 65 59