* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 08/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 35 37 42 43 44 44 44 44 46 49 50 53 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 35 37 42 43 44 44 44 44 46 49 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 31 34 37 40 42 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 31 31 26 15 8 5 7 8 5 11 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 1 3 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 296 300 310 318 311 37 329 10 29 107 155 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 134 134 137 145 142 147 144 136 128 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 117 117 120 127 124 127 123 116 110 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 49 48 47 45 44 42 45 47 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -11 -21 -28 -31 -48 -74 -107 -138 -156 -85 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -2 -5 3 14 -10 -6 -29 0 4 25 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 3 2 3 -3 4 -4 3 -2 -5 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1605 1626 1648 1673 1700 1700 1662 1662 1662 1584 1382 1167 856 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.3 25.4 26.7 28.2 29.7 31.5 33.6 36.1 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.9 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.6 51.1 52.3 53.5 55.1 55.8 55.4 54.3 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 7 9 10 10 10 12 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 23 21 19 18 20 21 31 17 14 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 11. 14. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.3 50.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 08/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 08/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 08/30/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 34 35 37 42 43 44 44 44 44 46 49 50 53 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 34 36 41 42 43 43 43 43 45 48 49 52 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 34 39 40 41 41 41 41 43 46 47 50 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 28 33 34 35 35 35 35 37 40 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT