* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 97 100 99 96 91 86 81 75 72 71 72 73 73 73 71 V (KT) LAND 90 95 97 88 71 42 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 101 102 74 42 31 28 27 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 15 9 13 13 18 16 24 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -2 2 2 8 0 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 296 330 305 285 269 251 271 254 258 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.6 31.7 31.0 30.6 29.6 29.7 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 171 171 171 171 172 163 165 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 158 156 150 155 171 162 153 137 137 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 5 7 1 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 71 72 70 72 70 71 62 49 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 28 26 26 23 20 18 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -21 -36 -18 -25 -54 -29 -16 29 61 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 9 22 23 22 38 86 12 59 9 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 0 4 12 6 12 21 13 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 307 173 69 -6 -53 -153 -328 -484 -661 -649 -456 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.2 29.9 31.4 33.3 35.0 36.6 37.8 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.5 89.5 90.2 90.9 91.3 90.7 89.1 86.8 84.0 80.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 126 116 49 41 26 7 6 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 1. -4. -9. -15. -18. -19. -18. -17. -17. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.7 87.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.49 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.37 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.8% 41.7% 34.4% 25.9% 7.9% 11.7% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 20.9% 39.5% 29.5% 17.1% 10.5% 10.4% 6.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 14.5% 35.2% 11.5% 32.7% 5.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.1% 38.8% 25.1% 25.2% 8.0% 8.1% 5.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 20( 30) 0( 30) 0( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 39 3( 41) 0( 41) 0( 41) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 97 88 71 42 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 90 89 91 82 65 36 25 22 21 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 90 87 86 77 60 31 20 17 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 63 34 23 20 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 42 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 65 54 51 50 51 51 51 51 52 52 52 52 IN 12HR 90 95 97 88 82 78 67 64 63 64 64 64 64 65 65 65 65