* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 20 21 24 25 28 29 31 31 31 30 30 29 27 28 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 29 30 35 36 39 40 41 42 42 41 41 40 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 29 30 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 10 12 13 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 190 229 239 266 241 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.3 21.9 20.0 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 102 99 87 81 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 82 82 76 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 6 5 3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 59 55 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 11 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 57 51 46 30 -20 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 7 40 27 0 7 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 7 9 4 27 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -129 -144 -160 -155 -91 138 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.7 41.9 42.0 42.2 42.3 42.8 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.3 74.3 73.2 72.2 68.5 64.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 4 8 11 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 867 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. -0. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 41.7 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.63 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.26 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.9% 6.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.6% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/23/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 29 30 35 36 39 40 41 42 42 41 41 40 38 39 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 31 32 35 36 37 38 38 37 37 36 34 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 27 28 31 32 33 34 34 33 33 32 30 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 22 25 26 27 28 28 27 27 26 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT