* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 60 65 68 71 73 68 65 65 69 72 73 75 77 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 60 40 42 45 47 33 29 27 30 33 35 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 64 43 45 48 52 34 29 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 11 14 15 14 13 14 14 10 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -3 0 1 2 1 0 -4 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 319 324 321 328 21 358 14 353 34 52 74 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.7 28.6 29.2 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 168 173 170 165 167 170 164 164 145 155 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 169 165 171 166 160 158 161 154 153 134 145 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 9 10 9 9 9 11 9 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 58 58 59 59 64 66 70 75 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 18 18 18 17 17 16 11 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -15 -9 -5 -18 -20 -15 15 53 68 77 76 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 9 28 40 21 28 7 19 6 3 14 56 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -7 -7 -13 -6 -13 -5 -8 -3 -9 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 198 337 293 245 101 -100 186 239 13 -190 -320 -192 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.7 83.3 84.8 86.4 89.4 92.2 94.5 97.0 99.2 101.3 103.4 105.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 85 86 83 87 48 5 27 42 28 6 13 18 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. -3. -11. -18. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 18. 15. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.7 80.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.53 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 24.9% 13.3% 9.3% 6.2% 10.6% 18.0% 17.6% Logistic: 8.1% 24.3% 16.5% 16.3% 9.2% 17.2% 17.9% 28.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 16.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 2.9% 4.4% 6.1% Consensus: 6.1% 21.8% 11.2% 8.6% 5.2% 10.2% 13.4% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 60 40 42 45 47 33 29 27 30 33 35 37 39 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 57 37 39 42 44 30 26 24 27 30 32 34 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 31 33 36 38 24 20 18 21 24 26 28 30 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 22 24 27 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT