* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 44 50 58 63 67 72 80 85 77 74 77 78 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 35 42 48 56 61 65 70 78 83 53 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 37 40 43 47 52 59 67 73 49 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 7 9 14 13 13 12 11 12 4 10 1 10 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 1 4 0 1 -1 3 0 2 0 3 -2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 284 261 277 293 258 304 262 303 298 360 254 338 321 8 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.3 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.9 28.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.1 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 158 169 167 169 171 166 169 152 172 172 171 171 148 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 154 165 162 164 167 161 164 143 162 164 165 155 134 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 8 12 9 13 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 53 53 57 55 59 55 55 57 58 61 66 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 14 14 15 16 16 18 19 19 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 16 20 5 1 2 -28 -17 -21 -5 -8 9 33 49 62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 40 56 29 14 54 23 21 16 18 5 10 26 14 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -13 -12 -19 -10 -16 -9 -15 -5 -14 -7 -15 -12 -24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 52 17 2 46 98 94 160 67 60 174 335 266 82 -122 -347 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.2 22.1 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.8 72.1 73.4 74.7 76.0 78.6 81.6 84.7 87.6 90.4 92.9 95.2 97.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 12 11 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 35 45 46 52 87 88 81 22 32 56 48 32 17 17 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 5. -8. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 14. 20. 28. 33. 37. 42. 50. 55. 47. 44. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 70.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.5% 10.7% 7.4% 4.5% 9.5% 12.7% 19.3% Logistic: 5.4% 20.1% 12.2% 9.2% 4.3% 18.3% 24.7% 26.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 6.8% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 2.3% 0.8% Consensus: 4.1% 14.5% 8.7% 5.6% 3.0% 9.7% 13.2% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/16/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 33 35 42 48 56 61 65 70 78 83 53 35 29 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 32 39 45 53 58 62 67 75 80 50 32 26 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 35 41 49 54 58 63 71 76 46 28 22 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 35 43 48 52 57 65 70 40 22 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT