* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 41 47 53 57 63 66 70 76 79 82 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 29 34 34 33 42 48 51 57 60 64 70 73 76 65 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 31 36 38 41 45 49 52 57 61 66 69 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 8 10 14 12 13 7 11 12 19 11 19 11 14 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 5 0 3 0 2 2 4 0 2 0 -1 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 310 321 278 263 286 295 285 358 313 1 352 1 352 24 322 306 301 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 29.4 29.7 29.4 30.0 29.7 30.4 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 159 165 159 171 166 173 163 166 171 172 171 168 168 163 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 155 159 154 167 160 173 154 153 159 168 160 148 145 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 55 54 58 57 57 56 58 55 59 56 59 60 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 11 11 13 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 13 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 16 17 0 -5 -34 -31 -34 -36 -31 -10 2 -2 13 22 -6 200 MB DIV 27 40 55 55 18 34 5 0 26 22 0 3 0 1 10 9 9 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -11 -14 -15 -11 -31 -14 -32 -22 -25 -8 -14 -4 -31 -11 -10 LAND (KM) 128 41 -4 32 64 -11 103 78 159 193 286 421 233 114 86 -8 -198 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.7 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.9 72.1 73.3 74.5 77.2 80.1 83.0 86.0 88.4 90.6 92.8 95.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 14 15 14 13 11 10 11 8 4 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 25 33 43 45 64 67 92 52 31 42 60 53 36 32 26 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 43. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. 0. -0. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 33. 36. 40. 46. 49. 52. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 69.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.8% 9.7% 6.5% 3.6% 8.5% 11.7% 25.4% Logistic: 6.3% 22.0% 13.1% 8.3% 3.8% 12.9% 27.7% 33.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 5.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 6.4% 1.7% Consensus: 4.2% 14.1% 8.3% 5.0% 2.5% 7.4% 15.3% 20.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/16/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 29 34 34 33 42 48 51 57 60 64 70 73 76 65 40 18HR AGO 30 29 26 31 31 30 39 45 48 54 57 61 67 70 73 62 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 31 30 39 45 48 54 57 61 67 70 73 62 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 28 34 37 43 46 50 56 59 62 51 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT