* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 55 58 59 61 60 62 63 64 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 50 53 47 50 49 51 51 39 31 28 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 49 49 51 46 47 48 49 50 40 31 28 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 4 8 12 10 13 12 19 14 21 18 15 14 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -3 0 0 3 3 0 3 -2 2 -3 0 -2 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 245 298 285 260 265 296 266 280 293 315 331 1 8 28 316 343 358 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.8 28.4 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.7 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 143 141 139 149 143 151 152 152 165 168 171 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 145 142 140 135 141 135 142 140 140 153 154 155 155 157 152 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 48 50 55 57 59 67 68 67 62 65 64 68 67 70 70 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -35 -29 -20 -18 0 2 2 -7 8 -25 -33 -32 -13 -41 -29 -39 200 MB DIV -2 32 39 39 29 63 62 83 31 64 28 19 12 22 11 28 15 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -6 -4 -6 -11 -10 -15 -14 -16 -20 -21 -14 -9 -11 0 -1 LAND (KM) 865 741 664 611 438 101 11 11 22 135 143 182 83 -58 -86 -41 33 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.1 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.7 58.6 60.2 61.8 64.9 67.1 69.2 71.5 73.4 75.1 77.2 79.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 17 16 15 13 11 11 11 10 10 12 11 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 57 35 25 41 48 25 23 34 45 51 69 30 10 27 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 20. 23. 24. 26. 25. 27. 28. 29. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.82 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 22.5% 13.0% 9.1% 5.9% 10.5% 16.3% 18.8% Logistic: 12.9% 49.6% 40.5% 28.1% 14.8% 28.8% 21.5% 28.9% Bayesian: 3.3% 23.7% 15.8% 0.8% 0.7% 6.2% 8.0% 10.4% Consensus: 7.9% 31.9% 23.1% 12.6% 7.1% 15.1% 15.3% 19.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/14/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/14/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 45 49 50 53 47 50 49 51 51 39 31 28 31 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 45 46 49 43 46 45 47 47 35 27 24 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 41 44 38 41 40 42 42 30 22 19 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 32 35 29 32 31 33 33 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT