* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 35 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 35 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 38 37 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 18 21 14 16 13 13 13 8 9 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 6 6 1 2 4 1 5 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 48 61 57 49 66 59 44 48 34 74 107 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 26.4 24.8 23.6 22.2 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 142 128 111 99 84 79 74 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 80 76 71 64 60 55 50 42 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 25 24 22 18 17 15 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 71 76 65 75 67 56 41 37 36 24 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 78 56 49 19 21 3 -14 -26 0 -4 28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -1 -6 -5 1 -2 3 1 3 3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 643 639 645 666 671 686 800 895 1003 1180 1318 1402 1499 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.8 114.4 115.1 115.8 117.4 119.4 121.7 123.8 126.2 128.8 131.1 133.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -30. -36. -43. -50. -57. -57. -55. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.9 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.22 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 12.8% 12.5% 9.8% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.3% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##