* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 30 30 27 24 24 23 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 30 30 27 24 24 23 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 28 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 5 4 2 9 13 19 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 1 -4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 138 226 279 345 21 294 302 284 270 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.5 23.8 23.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 126 122 114 106 98 101 101 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 67 65 67 65 59 51 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 13 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 77 83 76 61 38 20 7 2 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 83 69 46 32 9 0 -13 -8 10 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2111 2073 2036 1982 1928 1802 1668 1508 1298 1134 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.6 21.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.6 135.9 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.9 139.0 140.4 142.4 144.1 145.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 135.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.3% 6.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##