* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 55 57 60 65 66 70 67 66 65 69 68 60 52 46 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 48 42 46 50 52 43 37 30 33 37 36 29 22 16 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 52 41 43 45 48 42 40 32 35 40 43 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 22 16 20 11 15 11 17 14 15 21 35 54 47 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -1 1 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 2 -3 -8 4 0 SHEAR DIR 310 305 296 295 284 280 283 282 277 296 288 295 268 246 227 221 228 SST (C) 29.4 30.0 30.0 30.4 30.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.5 27.0 24.6 24.0 17.0 9.8 9.4 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 170 170 172 171 154 151 147 144 132 127 106 103 78 70 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 162 161 169 167 138 134 130 127 117 114 96 95 74 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -53.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 4 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 57 60 57 61 60 69 75 79 71 60 59 55 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 8 8 8 11 12 11 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -26 -48 -65 -55 -56 -58 -74 -54 -59 -31 17 60 52 71 145 108 200 MB DIV 25 20 21 26 43 20 40 26 47 29 74 49 50 37 59 57 52 700-850 TADV 0 -1 3 -1 -3 7 1 9 9 4 23 -10 32 -4 -29 -17 -12 LAND (KM) 56 71 67 -5 -33 80 136 44 -59 1 -56 167 280 227 30 415 927 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.9 25.4 27.4 29.6 32.1 34.7 37.2 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 78.3 79.2 80.0 80.9 82.2 82.9 83.1 82.5 80.8 78.1 73.8 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 9 11 13 15 19 23 28 31 29 25 23 HEAT CONTENT 45 64 76 60 61 41 19 22 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 13. 10. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 16. 20. 17. 16. 15. 19. 18. 10. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.3 77.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.2% 10.9% 8.1% 5.4% 9.6% 11.3% 11.3% Logistic: 4.7% 8.6% 5.4% 3.8% 1.6% 3.1% 2.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.0% 5.6% 4.0% 2.4% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/04/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 48 42 46 50 52 43 37 30 33 37 36 29 22 16 18HR AGO 50 49 52 46 40 44 48 50 41 35 28 31 35 34 27 20 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 40 34 38 42 44 35 29 22 25 29 28 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 34 38 42 44 35 29 22 25 29 28 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT