* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052021 07/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 47 50 55 56 59 63 66 72 73 77 78 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 47 50 55 56 59 63 66 60 69 73 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 42 43 45 51 57 53 61 64 67 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 13 9 4 9 10 14 3 10 9 16 8 14 11 17 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 5 6 10 10 12 6 3 -1 4 8 5 9 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 354 332 354 355 318 302 290 308 254 290 253 289 298 297 286 299 277 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 141 140 138 139 141 150 157 161 157 147 141 138 142 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 137 141 140 138 139 141 150 153 154 148 133 127 122 121 112 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 66 67 69 67 65 60 59 61 65 69 72 72 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 21 23 23 23 20 18 17 18 19 18 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 79 77 69 63 65 61 49 50 21 0 -9 -22 -6 -19 -3 -32 -39 200 MB DIV 43 56 62 51 48 40 28 25 32 24 27 28 57 28 35 12 13 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -7 -1 1 -6 -5 15 6 -2 -4 0 3 18 22 23 11 LAND (KM) 893 781 677 624 638 282 404 248 60 83 79 33 -4 206 108 92 72 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.8 14.3 16.0 17.5 19.0 20.4 21.7 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.4 47.4 49.5 51.8 54.2 59.4 64.5 69.5 73.6 76.6 78.9 81.1 83.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 22 24 25 26 25 24 18 15 12 12 10 10 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 29 28 40 27 32 25 40 24 34 82 50 65 17 12 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -9. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 20. 25. 26. 29. 33. 36. 42. 43. 47. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 45.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 FIVE 07/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.7% 11.6% 7.8% 4.8% 9.6% 12.8% 22.0% Logistic: 5.8% 15.7% 7.7% 2.7% 1.8% 5.6% 6.5% 8.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 14.5% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 1.3% 2.7% Consensus: 4.3% 16.0% 8.0% 3.6% 2.2% 5.6% 6.9% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 FIVE 07/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 FIVE 07/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 41 47 50 55 56 59 63 66 60 69 73 74 74 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 44 47 52 53 56 60 63 57 66 70 71 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 38 41 46 47 50 54 57 51 60 64 65 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 33 38 39 42 46 49 43 52 56 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT